[SMM Chromium Weekly Review] Chromium Market Weakens Post-Holiday, Awaiting Steel Tender Guidance

On October 17, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,500-8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, offers for high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) from the previous trading day. For imported material, offers for South African high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,100-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); offers for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome were 9,100-9,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat from the previous trading day.

This week, the ferrochrome market continued its mediocre trend from last week, as post-holiday purchasing demand release fell short of expectations, resulting in limited actual transactions. Downstream stainless steel prices declined due to market weakness caused by renewed discussions on macro-level tariff policies, indirectly affecting ferrochrome procurement. Downstream buyers remained cautious, mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach, which exerted some downward pressure on prices. Some traders lowered their offers to recoup funds, with prices in north China dropping by about 100 yuan to 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content). Concurrently, the pullback in chrome ore spot prices led to looser immediate smelting costs for ferrochrome, weakening price support. However, considering that downstream stainless steel planned production remains high at 3.45 million mt, coupled with some recent recovery in futures, prices are showing signs of recovery and attempted increases. There is underlying rigid procurement demand, with the market primarily awaiting the pricing of the new round of steel mill tenders. The ferrochrome market is expected to operate steadily in the short term.

On the raw material side, on October 17, 2025, spot offers at Tianjin port for 40-42% South African concentrate were 56-56.5 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore were 51-52 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder were 57.5-58.5 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore were 59-61.5 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore were 60-61 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate powder were 65-66 yuan/mtu, down 0.5 yuan/mtu from the previous trading day. In the futures market, offers for 40-42% South African concentrate were $280-284/mt; offers for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder were $345-355/mt, flat from the previous trading day.

This week, the chrome ore market performed weakly, with mediocre purchasing transactions, increasing selling pressure on traders, and prices edging lower. On the seller side, with shipment volumes remaining high, recent chrome ore port arrivals continued to increase, leading to a noticeable inventory buildup at ports. Total chrome ore port inventory this week was 3.3968 million mt. Traders faced increased pressure from open interest, showed a strong willingness to sell, often engaging in liquidation operations, leading to slight price reductions. Zimbabwean concentrate prices changed most rapidly, but transactions were limited due to grade variations, with inquiries mainly focused on lump ore of specific particle size. On the buyer side, ferrochrome producers continued to primarily consume their own inventory, with limited release of purchasing demand, often making counteroffers to drive down prices, resulting in a stalemate and game of tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. At the futures level, the latest round of offers for 40-42% South African fines remained flat at $282/mt. Traders, considering the high subsequent costs, showed general purchase willingness. Chrome ore prices lacked further upward momentum, and amid sustained production increases, the market generally held some concerns about the outlook. However, high ferrochrome production will support stable chrome ore prices in the short term, with possible minor fluctuations, as the market awaits the new round of steel tender pricing.